Prediction Markets

Targeted answers for Polymarket-based prediction market activity on Alphio — access, bridge, resolution, and cash-out.

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Why can't I bet on Polymarket from my region?

warning

Polymarket restricts access in many regions, most notably the United States and several other jurisdictions where regulated prediction markets are unavailable to retail. Alphio relays Polymarket's regional policy — it does not override it.

If your region is on Polymarket's restricted list, the prediction-markets surface will be unavailable or read-only on your account. Using a VPN to bypass the restriction violates Polymarket's terms and can result in funds being frozen; Alphio cannot recover funds in that scenario.

USDC bridge transaction is stuck. Polymarket settles on Polygon, so funding it requires bridging USDC to Polygon. A "stuck" bridge usually means one of these stages is incomplete:

• Source-chain tx not confirmed — wait for the source chain's confirmations (Ethereum can take several minutes during congestion).
• Bridge relayer delay — most bridges take a few minutes; some take longer at peak load. Check the bridge's own status page.
• Polygon receipt not yet indexed — the destination tx is on Polygon but Alphio / Polymarket hasn't picked it up yet. Refresh after a minute.

Copy the source tx hash and the bridge transaction ID, then check the bridge's tracker. If still stuck after the bridge's stated worst-case window, follow up with the bridge's support (not Alphio's) — Alphio doesn't operate the bridge.

How is a prediction outcome resolved? Polymarket markets resolve through UMA's optimistic oracle:

• A proposer submits the outcome they claim is correct.
• During a dispute window, anyone can dispute by posting a bond.
• If undisputed, the proposed outcome resolves the market and pays out winning shares.
• If disputed, UMA's voting mechanism decides.

This process is entirely on Polymarket / UMA, not Alphio. The market page on polymarket.com shows the current resolution stage and any disputes.

I disagree with how an event was resolved.

warning

Event resolution is handled by Polymarket and UMA directly, not Alphio. Disputes must go through Polymarket's resolution dispute flow within the dispute window — Alphio cannot override, reverse, or appeal a resolution.

If you believe a market resolved incorrectly:

• Open the market page on polymarket.com.
• Follow Polymarket's documented dispute process (post a bond within the dispute window).
• Be aware that disputes that lose forfeit the bond.

Bet not appearing in my history. Polymarket bets surface on Alphio after the chain settles and Alphio's indexer catches up:

• Confirm the USDC bridge to Polygon completed — check the bridge tx status.
• Open Asset → Activity log and filter by Polymarket to view orders.
• A successful order shows up within seconds to a minute after the Polygon tx confirms.
• If the bet shows on Alphio but not on polymarket.com, give it 1 to 2 minutes for Polymarket's own indexing.
• If the bet shows on polymarket.com but not on Alphio, hard-refresh; if still missing, contact support with the Polygon tx hash.

Cashing out before resolution. Polymarket markets have an order book of YES / NO shares, so cashing out before resolution is just selling your shares at the current market price:

• Open the market position on Alphio's Polymarket activity tab.
• Place a sell order against the current bid — confirm the price and slippage on the Trade Modal.
• The cash returns as USDC on Polygon, which can then be bridged back if you want to move it off Polygon.

If the order book has no buyer at any reasonable price, you may not be able to cash out — that's a liquidity property of the specific market, not a platform issue.