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Prediction markets

Bet on real-world event outcomes via Polymarket binary markets, with USDC bridge for funding.

Find it at: /lottery-plays, /near-certain-plays, /contrarian-plays, /pro-trader-plays, and individual events at /event-details.

1. Four play categories​

Polymarket events on Alphio are pre-grouped into four curated lists. Each filter surfaces a different shape of opportunity.

  • Lottery Plays (/lottery-plays) — long-shot bets where the YES (or NO) side trades at a very low price. Small stake, large potential payout, low expected hit rate. Use when you have a strong directional view against the crowd.
  • Near-Certain Plays (/near-certain-plays) — markets where one side trades near 1.00 (close to certain). Limited upside, high expected hit rate. Use as a low-volatility yield-ish allocation when you want consistent small wins.
  • Contrarian Plays (/contrarian-plays) — markets where Alphio's signal disagrees with the prevailing price. Surfaces events where the AI thinks the crowd is mispriced.
  • Pro Trader Plays (/pro-trader-plays) — markets concentrated in positions held by high-performing prediction-market traders. Use to follow what the top traders are sized into.

Each category is its own filtered list of events; the underlying event data and order placement flow are identical.

2. Event detail page​

Tapping any event opens the event detail page (/event-details), which is the canonical surface for analysis and order placement on a single market.

It includes:

  • Probability trend — chart of YES probability over time, so you can see momentum, reversals, and major news-driven moves
  • Top holders — the largest YES and NO positions on the market, including the wallet addresses (click through to a user profile)
  • Activity feed — recent trades on the market — size, side, and price — to gauge live flow
  • AI commentary — Alphio AI's plain-language read on the event: what the market is pricing in, what would move it, and whether the current price looks rich or cheap

Prediction event

3. User profile​

You can click any trader (from the top-holders list, activity feed, or the leaderboard) to see their profile. The profile surfaces:

  • PnL curve — historical P&L for that user, sized
  • Trade stats — win rate, average ticket, recent activity
  • Allocation — current open positions and how their portfolio is distributed across markets
  • Bet cost distribution — average entry price profile, to gauge whether they hunt long shots or grind near-certains

Use this to vet a trader before mirroring them or before treating their flow as signal.

4. Placing a bet​

A prediction-market order is a signed CLOB order, not a custodial market order. The flow:

  1. Choose side and price. YES or NO, with a price between 0.01 and 0.99 (USDC per share).
  2. Choose size. Number of shares. Max payoff per share is 1.00 USDC at resolution if your side wins.
  3. Sign. Alphio constructs an EIP-712 ClobAuth order; you sign it with the wallet associated with your Polymarket account.
  4. Submit. The signed order is forwarded to Polymarket's CLOB. Resting limits sit on the book; aggressive orders fill against existing liquidity.

Cancel a working order from the open-orders list at any time; cancellation is itself a Polymarket-signed action.

warning

Polymarket has geographic restrictions and may not be accessible from certain jurisdictions. The exact list of restricted regions is being finalized for documentation. Check the Polymarket terms of service and Alphio's regional availability before funding or placing orders.

5. USDC bridge​

Polymarket settles in USDC on Polygon. To fund your Polymarket account, Alphio offers a USDC bridge that moves USDC from an external wallet (Ethereum mainnet, Arbitrum, Base, etc.) into your Polymarket-linked address.

The bridge flow:

  1. Connect the external wallet holding USDC
  2. Pick the source chain and amount
  3. Approve and sign the bridge transaction
  4. Wait for confirmation on the destination (Polygon) — the bridge UI tracks status until USDC lands on the Polymarket account

USDC bridge

For pulling funds back out, use the same bridge in reverse — or withdraw directly to your wallet from Polymarket and bridge externally.

6. Relayer service​

Some Polymarket operations (gas-sponsored signed orders, certain bridge legs) route through a relayer that pays gas on your behalf so you don't need native gas on the destination chain.

warning

The exact relayer identity (Alphio-operated vs. third-party vendor) and its fee model are being finalized. Until that's published, treat any small relayer / gas component shown at confirmation time as the source of truth, and ask the product team if you need an exact ownership statement.

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